Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 21.306290 23.286841 25.494020 28.162362 31.337528 35.043777 39.773072
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 18.517942 21.133713 24.282740 28.449842 33.981506 41.340638 52.410589
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 16.610410 19.551437 23.298940 28.621647 36.370311 48.006646 68.815692
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.067848 18.132132 22.202370 28.306014 37.886046 53.903505 87.995281
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 13.993374 17.150632 21.494069 28.324998 39.818631 61.209502 116.757281
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.055964 16.228944 20.715177 28.046704 41.128296 67.962440 153.861154
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.272687 15.433055 20.004338 27.723617 42.233976 74.881201 206.823428
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.627381 14.769664 19.406631 27.470906 43.384375 82.637537 292.358784
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.087495 14.211275 18.904860 27.292037 44.626439 91.577141 450.298349
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.519006 13.566614 18.203509 26.649740 44.703371 97.259205 671.965066
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.361073 13.524542 18.457027 27.791870 49.182968 122.412551 3834.507669
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.967732 13.092356 18.027017 27.558592 50.260387 136.041021 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.652917 12.768159 17.759986 27.631716 52.247798 157.876594 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.384577 12.500574 17.567136 27.831189 54.699943 188.473898 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.127829 12.235590 17.356177 27.962891 57.045524 226.682131 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.826420 11.881885 16.961612 27.645222 57.911092 257.671957 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.594664 11.629204 16.729153 27.657440 59.914751 313.049524 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.342029 11.329620 16.390812 27.387547 60.879556 365.731180 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.101640 11.039353 16.051157 27.076048 61.624940 427.204375 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.885869 10.780681 15.754238 26.832730 62.587316 513.355890 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.692594 10.551478 15.498628 26.660606 63.813759 642.419219 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.457489 10.242962 15.077306 26.042878 63.019190 699.199259 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.434842 10.292302 15.336819 27.140873 70.197634 1776.163947 NaN